Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.278933 3.923252 4.642005 5.500479 6.495032 7.607990 8.944610
2025-04-27 2.318294 3.171823 4.236142 5.647633 7.455463 9.676961 12.594819
2025-05-04 1.756825 2.699762 3.992596 5.862611 8.459846 11.895482 16.730374
2025-05-11 1.327304 2.266538 3.668240 5.855372 9.110659 13.690710 20.512269
2025-05-18 0.987417 1.863206 3.277824 5.643428 9.389580 14.954440 23.660843
2025-05-25 0.732714 1.522525 2.898017 5.351848 9.465048 15.882174 26.371864
2025-06-01 0.580404 1.317346 2.691065 5.286466 9.858393 17.298762 29.923469
2025-06-08 0.464364 1.147841 2.507256 5.217736 10.216732 18.672011 33.511169
2025-06-15 0.411835 1.094328 2.527526 5.514994 11.234918 21.215127 39.209361
2025-06-22 0.344095 0.987683 2.418852 5.543380 11.760557 22.957643 43.704015
2025-06-29 0.286880 0.889014 2.305374 5.539191 12.215256 24.605296 48.158323
2025-07-06 0.238813 0.798793 2.190920 5.510841 12.611706 26.172557 52.584160
2025-07-13 0.223214 0.794589 2.279848 5.946948 14.012715 29.765266 61.030161
2025-07-20 0.195349 0.746963 2.255422 6.127968 14.914979 32.506556 68.153643
2025-07-27 0.173914 0.712123 2.256231 6.367665 15.969882 35.636693 76.252833
2025-08-03 0.146200 0.646827 2.162182 6.363079 16.489053 37.748514 82.563433
2025-08-10 0.116237 0.561305 1.991455 6.136199 16.476787 38.775967 86.830055
2025-08-17 0.089897 0.476890 1.801563 5.822739 16.217971 39.257785 90.033132
2025-08-24 0.074325 0.428352 1.708588 5.752477 16.526630 40.963872 95.838880
2025-08-31 0.061401 0.384820 1.620225 5.678511 16.814428 42.644023 101.705036
2025-09-07 0.057261 0.380787 1.664786 5.998591 18.133431 46.713078 112.870385
2025-09-14 0.049054 0.352210 1.615669 6.029153 18.705483 49.136309 120.666042
2025-09-21 0.041620 0.323505 1.558449 6.024647 19.183637 51.380204 128.218947